Crude Rebounds As US$ Weakens On Softer PMI Data

Oil prices rose strongly on Tuesday as weaker-than-expected US PMI data increased speculation of a rate cut as attention moves away from geopolitics. This week’s other US data, including Q1 GDP and March core PCE prices, will be watched closely to ascertain Fed timing. The USD index is 0.4% lower, which also supported crude.

• WTI rose 1.8% on Tuesday to $83.40/bbl to be up 1.2% in April. It has started today around this level. The benchmark fell to a low of $80.88, close to support at $80.75 (50-day EMA), before rebounding to a high of $83.43. Initial resistance and bull trigger is at $86.97.
• Brent fell to $86.03/bbl before rising to a high of $88.51. It finished up 1.6% to $88.42. The recent trend downward highlights the start of a corrective cycle. Initial support is at $85.55, 50-day EMA with resistance and bull trigger at $92.18.
• After a number of large weekly inventory drops, Bloomberg is reporting that US crude stocks fell 3.23mn last week according to people familiar with the API data. Gasoline continued to fall at -595k but distillate rose 724k. The official EIA data is release later today.