Crude Resume Decline on Weak Demand Concern

Crude markets have resumed the recent move lower due to concerns about rising interest rates, the global economy and the impact on global oil demand. Brent crude is trading down towards the lows from last week at 80.5$/bbl after recovering to around 82$/bbl on Friday. The potential for tighter supplies due to OPEC+ production cuts starting in May are providing some support while uncertainty remains over the speed of recovery in China.

• Brent JUN 23 down -1.2% at 80.64$/bbl
• WTI JUN 23 down -1.3% at 76.86$/bbl
• Gasoil MAY 23 down -1.3% at 714.75$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.06$/bbl at -3.79$/bbl
• Weak demand and returning refinery output still weighs on refining margins although Russian refinery runs have been cut amid oil output cut targets and due to maintenance. US refiners have gradually return from maintenance, French refiners have return following strike outages and refiners in India and new Middle East refineries have increased output. Diesel spreads are the lowest since March 2022 while gasoline spreads are the lowest since late Feb of early March.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.7$/bbl at 29.46$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.3$/bbl at 26.21$/bbl
• Crude backwardation continues to soften with time spreads the lowest since the start of the month but still holding above levels seen before the OPEC production cut announcement.
  • Brent JUN 23-JUL 23 down -0.01$/bbl at 0.19$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 23-DEC 23 down -0.1$/bbl at 2.22$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 down -0.24$/bbl at 3.75$/bbl