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Crude Reverses Yesterday’s Lift On Gaza Ground Invasion Headlines

COMMODITIES
  • Crude markets have been dropping further during US hours, as some of the additional geopolitical risk premium continues to fall. Focus also remains on an uncertain demand picture. Crude has retreated following a partial rebound after the release of stronger than expected GDP growth, although which landed at the same time as a surprise lift in continuing jobless claims.
  • Overnight saw confirmation that the Israeli military had put a “relatively large” contingent of troops and tanks into northern Gaza in order to attack several Hamas militant targets in the area. The incursion at present looks short of a full ground operation in the territory.
  • The oil futures market may have priced in a war premium in recent weeks, but the fall today is more reflective of the sell-off observed in the physical market.
  • MNI COMMODITY ANALYSIS: Russian Crude Exports Breaching Commitments as Refining Still Lags. Full piece here.
  • WTI is -2.5% at $83.23 but having only unwound yesterday’s invasion headlines driven increase remains above key support at $80.20 (Oct 6 low).
  • Brent is -2.5% at $87.90, above support at $85.18 (Oct 12 low) after which lies the bear trigger at $83.44 (Oct 6 low).
  • Gold is +0.35% at $1986.45, gaining late in the session as the USD fades to help the yellow metal lift further off lows $1971.87 back to levels from earlier in the session. Resistance is seen at $1997.2 (Oct 20 high).

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