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OIL: Crude Rises As OPEC Considers Another Output Normalisation Delay

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Oil prices were higher on Monday helped by news that there are private talks amongst OPEC to delay its output normalisation again from the currently planned April start. But markets remain worried about excess supply and the impact of tariffs on demand. The USD index fell 0.1%.

  • WTI rose 0.9% to $71.39/bbl, close to the intraday high of $71.48. It is now down 1.6% this month but still up 0.2% this year. The benchmark continues to trade below the 50-day EMA. A clear break of $70.43 would undermine the bullish theme. Initial resistance is at $75.18.
  • Brent is 0.7% higher at $75.31/bbl after $75.38 but is still down 0.5% this month but 1.4% higher in 2025. Despite Monday’s modest rally, the focus is on support at $74.10 and a clear break would undermine the bullish theme. Initial resistance is at $77.34, 3 February high.
  • Heightened uncertainty and projections of excess supply this year appear to be driving OPEC’s consideration of a further delay to its gradual reduction in output cuts in private talks, according to Bloomberg. If it continues as planned, prices are likely to fall which it wants to avoid. This would be the fourth such delay to plans to add 2.2mbd back by end-2026 and a decision is to be made in March.
  • Supply developments remain at the fore with prospects for exports to resume from Iraq’s Kurdistan region worth 300kbd but reduced flows from Kazakhstan after a drone attack on a pipeline due to see 1.6mbd. There is also optimism that peace in Ukraine will drive less restrictions on Russian crude. 
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Oil prices were higher on Monday helped by news that there are private talks amongst OPEC to delay its output normalisation again from the currently planned April start. But markets remain worried about excess supply and the impact of tariffs on demand. The USD index fell 0.1%.

  • WTI rose 0.9% to $71.39/bbl, close to the intraday high of $71.48. It is now down 1.6% this month but still up 0.2% this year. The benchmark continues to trade below the 50-day EMA. A clear break of $70.43 would undermine the bullish theme. Initial resistance is at $75.18.
  • Brent is 0.7% higher at $75.31/bbl after $75.38 but is still down 0.5% this month but 1.4% higher in 2025. Despite Monday’s modest rally, the focus is on support at $74.10 and a clear break would undermine the bullish theme. Initial resistance is at $77.34, 3 February high.
  • Heightened uncertainty and projections of excess supply this year appear to be driving OPEC’s consideration of a further delay to its gradual reduction in output cuts in private talks, according to Bloomberg. If it continues as planned, prices are likely to fall which it wants to avoid. This would be the fourth such delay to plans to add 2.2mbd back by end-2026 and a decision is to be made in March.
  • Supply developments remain at the fore with prospects for exports to resume from Iraq’s Kurdistan region worth 300kbd but reduced flows from Kazakhstan after a drone attack on a pipeline due to see 1.6mbd. There is also optimism that peace in Ukraine will drive less restrictions on Russian crude.