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Crude Stable Ahead of US CPI and Inventory Data

OIL

Front month Brent is little changed so far today ahead of the US CPI data with focus still on upside price risks driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions and tight supply amid uncertain global demand expectations.

    • Brent JUN 24 up 0.3% at 89.69$/bbl
    • WTI MAY 24 up 0.3% at 85.5$/bbl
    • Gasoil APR 24 down 0.6% at 835.75$/mt
    • WTI-Brent up 0.02$/bbl at -4.96$/bbl
  • Gaza ceasefire talks remain deadlocked after Hamas on Tuesday did not agree with an Israeli proposal but it would study the offer further.
  • Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval forces said that Iran is choosing not to disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.
  • Upside pressure has been eased slightly with a rise of 3mbbls in US stocks according to industry sources citing API data. EIA also showed a modest upward revision of 20kb/d in US crude production to 13.21mb/d in 2024.
  • EIA STEO also showed global oil demand growth for 2024 has been revised down by 480kb/d to 0.95mb/d. The Brent crude price is expected to average $88.55/bbl in 2024, up from a previous forecast of $87/bbl.
    • Brent JUN 24-JUL 24 up 0.04$/bbl at 0.93$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.09$/bbl at 5.02$/bbl
  • Diesel cracks continued their fall yesterday, despite uncertainty around Russia’s refinery output. Meanwhile, China is expected to issue its second batch of refined oil export quotas totalling 18m mt.
  • EIA data today is expected to show further draws in both US distillates and gasoline inventories.
    • US gasoline crack down 0.2$/bbl at 30.06$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.1$/bbl at 26.91$/bbl

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