Crude Starts Week Lower As Fed Meeting Looms

Oil prices rose solidly on Friday with WTI up 1.6% to $76.83/bbl to finish the week up 2%. Brent rose 1.3% to $80.71 but WTI has started today lower at $76.62, as the Fed meets on Wednesday and is widely expected to hike another 25bp. Oil may fall sharply if this move is accompanied by hawkish comments as it fears a US recession. The USD index finished 0.2% higher.

• Crude has been supported recently by signs of tightening supply with shipments from Russia and Saudi Arabia declining and also from other smaller producers. Also, the US oil rig count fell for the sixth straight week. IEA has reiterated that the oil market could move into deficit.
• WTI reached an intraday high on Friday of $77.29 as it approached but didn’t break resistance at $78.03. Options market moves were also bullish with the most active strikes in CLU3 $80 and $85 calls. Brent made a high of $81.24 but resistance remains at $82.06.