Crude Steadies After Drop Ahead of FOMC Decision

Crude is holding steady after a 4$/bbl drop yesterday driven by recessionary fears and concern for future oil demand growth. Disappointing recent US data including manufacturing and jobs opening data is adding to a likely 25bp rate hike from the FOMC later today, but the central bank could possibly signal that it will then pause.

• Brent JUL 23 up 0.1% at 75.42$/bbl
• WTI JUN 23 up 0% at 71.68$/bbl
• Gasoil MAY 23 up 0.4% at 663.5$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.02$/bbl at -3.83$/bbl
• Higher than expected Russia refinery runs are adding to the downside pressure but support comes from the other OPEC+ cuts starting this month and with the ongoing halt to Iraqi Kurdish oil output. Some tankers have given up waiting to load and have diverted away from the Turkish port of Ceyhan.
• Russia’s seaborne crude shipments are showing no sign of the planned production cut in place since the start of March with exports increasing to over 4mbpd and with little change in refinery runs.

• Brent JUL 23-AUG 23 up 0.01$/bbl at 0.29$/bbl
• Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.01$/bbl at 2.55$/bbl
• Time spreads followed the move lower yesterday with the Dec23-Dec24 spread now trading at the lowest since late March when spreads fell due to the US banking turmoil. The prompt time spread also dipped but remains above the lows from last week.
• Diesel and gasoline crack spreads have held relatively steady this week with diesel margins holding just up from the lowest since early 2022. Spreads continue to be pressured by concerns for weak demand, refineries returning from outages and new global refining capacity. Gasoline is seeing some more support than diesel ahead of the expected demand boost from the summer driving season.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.1$/bbl at 30.51$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.1$/bbl at 24.61$/bbl