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OIL: Crude Steady After Rally to Peak at $77.5/bbl

OIL
BulletEnergy BulletsCommodities

Oil prices are almost unchanged on the day after pulling back from a peak of $77.5/bbl yesterday as the market weighs sluggish Chinese demand and expectations of more fiscal stimulus to revitalise the economy.

  • Prices have declined moderately this week following technical indicators suggesting last week’s rally was overdone.
  • Soft market prices during Q1 could impact OPEC+ output plans for this year with the return of voluntary production cuts already delayed from Oct 2024 until April 2025. Concerns persist that new non-OPEC production is likely to exceed global demand growth.
  • A Bloomberg survey showed OPEC output declining 120kb/d to 27.05mb/d in December driven by UAE with moderate increases in Libya and Nigeria offset by cuts in Iran and Kuwait.
  • Funds are turning more bullish on oil as both Brent and Nymex crude oil net long positions increased last week taking the combined long position to the highest since early August.
  • The US diesel crack regained ground yesterday to remain just below the highest levels seen since July. However, gasoline cracks remain near lows seen in December.
    • Brent MAR 25 down 0.2% at 76.16$/bbl
    • WTI FEB 25 down 0.3% at 73.36$/bbl
    • Brent MAR 25-APR 25 up 0.01$/bbl at 0.6$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 down 0.03$/bbl at 1.94$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.1$/bbl at 11.84$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.2$/bbl at 25.37$/bbl
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Oil prices are almost unchanged on the day after pulling back from a peak of $77.5/bbl yesterday as the market weighs sluggish Chinese demand and expectations of more fiscal stimulus to revitalise the economy.

  • Prices have declined moderately this week following technical indicators suggesting last week’s rally was overdone.
  • Soft market prices during Q1 could impact OPEC+ output plans for this year with the return of voluntary production cuts already delayed from Oct 2024 until April 2025. Concerns persist that new non-OPEC production is likely to exceed global demand growth.
  • A Bloomberg survey showed OPEC output declining 120kb/d to 27.05mb/d in December driven by UAE with moderate increases in Libya and Nigeria offset by cuts in Iran and Kuwait.
  • Funds are turning more bullish on oil as both Brent and Nymex crude oil net long positions increased last week taking the combined long position to the highest since early August.
  • The US diesel crack regained ground yesterday to remain just below the highest levels seen since July. However, gasoline cracks remain near lows seen in December.
    • Brent MAR 25 down 0.2% at 76.16$/bbl
    • WTI FEB 25 down 0.3% at 73.36$/bbl
    • Brent MAR 25-APR 25 up 0.01$/bbl at 0.6$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 down 0.03$/bbl at 1.94$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.1$/bbl at 11.84$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.2$/bbl at 25.37$/bbl