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Crude Stronger Ahead of OPEC+ Production Decision

OIL

Crude is stronger this morning ahead of the OPEC+ meeting later today at which they will discuss whether to cut production targets.

    • Brent NOV 22 up 2.3% at 95.12$/bbl
    • WTI OCT 22 up 2% at 88.58$/bbl
    • Gasoil SEP 22 up 4.3% at 1138.5$/mt
    • WTI-Brent down -0.34$/bbl at -6.96$/bbl
  • Concerns over production are supporting prices despite weakest last week due to economic growth concerns and the potential for weaker Chinese oil demand due to recent lockdowns.
  • The market expectation is that OPEC+ are likely to keep production unchanged with any cut potentially driven by any future agreement on an Iran nuclear deal leading to more barrels onto the market. A reduction in production targets was highlighted as a possibility after comments from Saudi Arabia in Aug.
    • Brent NOV 22-DEC 22 up 0.2$/bbl at 1.41$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 22-DEC 23 up 1.39$/bbl at 10.48$/bbl
  • The uncertainty over supply is also supporting curve backwardation, with both prompt and longer dated time spreads strengthening. The prospect of more Iranian supply currently looks unlikely with limited progress in agreeing an Iran nuclear deal.
    • US 321 crack up 1$/bbl at 33.36$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down -0.8$/bbl at 15.76$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 3.3$/bbl at 68.36$/bbl
  • Oil refined products crack spreads are mixed today with stronger diesel but weaker gasoline after both rallied on Friday following the US payrolls data.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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