Crude Supported By Positive Risk Tone, US Retail Sales Later

Oil prices are holding onto most of yesterday’s gains. They are marginally lower during APAC trading today after rising over 2% on Monday. Benchmarks have found support from better risk sentiment as equities and other commodities rise. Brent is down 0.2% to $84.07/bbl, after a low of $84.05. WTI is also 0.2% lower but is holding above $80 at $80.15/bbl. The USD index is slightly higher.

• With geopolitics currently in the background, supply/demand fundamentals are at the fore. The demand outlook remains uncertain but the market has been concerned about Asia for some time. China’s refining output fell 1.8% y/y in May and India is reporting softer petrol consumption.
• CBA thinks that OPEC’s management of supply will keep the H2 average of Brent between $80 and $85/bbl, according to Bloomberg.
• Last week the EIA reported an unexpected crude inventory build in the US. The API releases its data later today.
• Later there are numerous Fed speakers including Barkin, Collins, Logan, Kugler, Musalem and Goolsbee as well as the ECB’s de Guindos. US May retail sales print and core sales are expected to rise. US May IP & April inventories and euro area May CPI and German June ZEW are released.