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Crude Time Spreads Extend Declining Trend

OIL

The declining trend in crude time spreads continues this morning with concern for Chinese oil demand adding to the downside market pressures. The spreads have seen a steady decline since early November on a weaker demand outlook and with robust near term supplies.

  • The Brent Jun23-Dec23 and the Dec23-Dec24 spreads are both trading at the lowest level since January having peaked in early June. The Dec23-Dec24 spread has fallen from 6.44$/bbl on Nov 7 down to around 3.1$/bbl and the Jun23-Dec23 spread has fallen from 4.96$/bbl to 2.20$/bbl in the same time period.
  • Russian crude exports were still strong in early November despite the upcoming EU sanctions on Russian seaborne imports. Ongoing negotiations for the cap on the price of Russian oil exports and the high proposed level of 65-70$/bbl has raised expectations for higher Russian flows than forecast into next year.
    • Brent JAN 23 down -3% at 81.08$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 23 down -3% at 74$/bbl
    • Brent JAN 23-FEB 23 down -0.05$/bbl at -0.13$/bbl
    • Brent FEB 23-MAR 23 down -0.12$/bbl at 0.05$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 23-DEC 23 down -0.34$/bbl at 2.2$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 down -0.54$/bbl at 3.07$/bbl

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The declining trend in crude time spreads continues this morning with concern for Chinese oil demand adding to the downside market pressures. The spreads have seen a steady decline since early November on a weaker demand outlook and with robust near term supplies.

  • The Brent Jun23-Dec23 and the Dec23-Dec24 spreads are both trading at the lowest level since January having peaked in early June. The Dec23-Dec24 spread has fallen from 6.44$/bbl on Nov 7 down to around 3.1$/bbl and the Jun23-Dec23 spread has fallen from 4.96$/bbl to 2.20$/bbl in the same time period.
  • Russian crude exports were still strong in early November despite the upcoming EU sanctions on Russian seaborne imports. Ongoing negotiations for the cap on the price of Russian oil exports and the high proposed level of 65-70$/bbl has raised expectations for higher Russian flows than forecast into next year.
    • Brent JAN 23 down -3% at 81.08$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 23 down -3% at 74$/bbl
    • Brent JAN 23-FEB 23 down -0.05$/bbl at -0.13$/bbl
    • Brent FEB 23-MAR 23 down -0.12$/bbl at 0.05$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 23-DEC 23 down -0.34$/bbl at 2.2$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 down -0.54$/bbl at 3.07$/bbl