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Crude Time Spreads Holding After Month of Decline

OIL

Brent time spreads are holding ground today after trending lower for most of the month so far.

  • Most of the softening has been seen at the front of the curve driven by China and global demand and Russian supplies. The front spread has fallen from 1.95$/bbl at the start of November down to around flat.
  • China is expected to show weak demand due to spreading covid restrictions and Russian crude exports are holding up greater than expected ahead of the EU ban. The discussion of an oil price cap potentially higher than the current Urals price has also boosted the prospect of a smaller decline in Russian supply into next year than many have forecast.
  • The Dec23-Dec24 spread has fallen from 6.44$/bbl on Nov 7 down to around 4$/bbl and the Jun23-Dec23 spread has fallen from 4.96$/bbl to 2.85$/bbl in the same time period.
    • Brent JAN 23 up 1.4% at 86.51$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 23 up 1.9% at 79.43$/bbl
    • Brent JAN 23-FEB 23 unchanged at 0.1$/bbl
    • Brent FEB 23-MAR 23 up 0.1$/bbl at 0.24$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 23-DEC 23 up 0.14$/bbl at 2.94$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.18$/bbl at 4.15$/bbl

Source: Bloomberg

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