Crude Time Spreads Surge Amid Tighter Global Supplies

Crude oil time spreads surge higher to extend the gains seen this week amid expectations of extended production cuts from Saudi Arabia and after Russia yesterday announced it has agreed on further actions with OPEC+ and will announce the steps next week.

• Saudi Arabia’s observed crude oil exports fell to 5.6mbpd in August, the lowest level since March 2021 according to Bloomberg.
• The Brent Nov-Dec spread has surged to the highest since June 2022 to 0.73$/bbl compared to around 0.4$/bbl at the start of the week.
• The Dec23-Dec24 spread is following the move to test the highs seen in April with supply cuts and inventories drawdowns largely expected to support crude prices until the end of this year.
• Brent November futures have traded through the first resistance level and bull trigger at 87.37$/bbl with next resistance at the psychological round number of 90$/bbl.
  • Brent NOV 23 up 1.2% at 87.86$/bbl
  • WTI OCT 23 up 1.2% at 84.64$/bbl
  • Brent NOV 23-DEC 23 up 0.14$/bbl at 0.74$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.32$/bbl at 5.97$/bbl
  • WTI OCT 23-NOV 23 up 0.07$/bbl at 0.74$/bbl
  • WTI DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.32$/bbl at 6.49$/bbl