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Crude to Reach 100$/bbl on Russian Output and Chinese Demand: UBS

OIL
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Sanctions on Russian oil products next month will likely limit oil output according to a note from UBS from 26 Jan.

  • They see lower Russian output and higher Chinese demand driving oil prices above $100/bbl over coming months.
  • Russia will find it more challenging to find buyers to compensate for missing European demand after sanctions are implemented on 5 Feb.
  • Diversion of product flows to other markets may be restricted by the availability of smaller tankers and there may be a limit to extra Asian crude flows.
  • They suggest Russian crude production could slip below 9m b/d in 2023.
  • China’s reopening could increase global oil demand above 103mbd in the second half of 2023.
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Sanctions on Russian oil products next month will likely limit oil output according to a note from UBS from 26 Jan.

  • They see lower Russian output and higher Chinese demand driving oil prices above $100/bbl over coming months.
  • Russia will find it more challenging to find buyers to compensate for missing European demand after sanctions are implemented on 5 Feb.
  • Diversion of product flows to other markets may be restricted by the availability of smaller tankers and there may be a limit to extra Asian crude flows.
  • They suggest Russian crude production could slip below 9m b/d in 2023.
  • China’s reopening could increase global oil demand above 103mbd in the second half of 2023.