Crude Unphased By Better China PMIs, Waiting For US Data

Oil prices have been range trading during the APAC session today. Both Brent and WTI are off their intraday lows but little changed on the day. The slight improvement in the August China manufacturing PMI failed to boost crude as it remained in contractionary territory. Friday’s US payroll data is important for the market for direction on Fed policy. The USD index is slightly lower.

• Brent has held above $85 during the APAC session and is trading around $85.23/bbl off the low of $85.09. It reached a high of $85.40 earlier. It is currently slightly higher on the month. WTI is steady around $81.62 after a low of $81.48 and high of $81.81.
• The market appears to be treading water ahead of US data particularly Friday’s payrolls (+170k forecast) but OPEC+ supply cuts and low inventories continue to provide support that has been limited by ongoing concerns re US and China demand. Saudi Arabia is expected to announce an extension to October of its voluntary output reduction soon.
• Barclays revised up its 2024 Brent forecast to $97 and others, including CBA, see upside risks to their forecasts as the market tightens, according to Bloomberg.
• See the MNI Commodity Weekly for more details on energy developments this week.
• Later the Fed’s Bostic and Collins speak and there are US jobless claims, August Challenger job cuts, July income/spending and August MNI Chicago PMI. The ECB’s Schnabel and de Guindos speak, ECB meeting accounts, preliminary August euro area CPI and July unemployment rate are published.