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CS: Core PCE Seen Below Consensus

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Credit Suisse expect core PCE inflation of just +0.2% M/M in April (a tenth lower than consensus, 4.8% Y/Y) compared to the CPI +0.6% M/M.
  • Most of the upside surprise in CPI was driven by an extreme rise in airfares, a component that does not pass through directly into estimates for PCE. Shelter inflation remains elevated, but there have been signs of a moderation in goods prices as supply chains eased to start the year.
  • Inflation is likely to continue to slow later in the year, but near-term risks are skewed to the upside as commodity markets are disrupted by war in Ukraine and China continues to respond aggressively to COVID outbreaks.
  • Personal spending meanwhile received a boost in April from back-loaded strength in tax refunds.
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