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Currencies Generally Rangebound, CB Speak in Focus

FOREX
  • Markets are generally rangebound and trading on light volumes so far Monday, with CHF marginally the poorest performer and AUD, NZD the strongest.
  • Early European trades see the USD recoup the (pretty minor) weakness across the early Asia-Pac session, putting EUR/USD back to flat and retaining the S/T bearish outlook for the pair. Continuation lower here would signal scope for 1.0796 first, the Feb29 low and open the bear trigger further out at 1.0695.
  • AUD/USD is firmer off last week's pullback low, and tech traders will be watching for the imminent formation of a death cross in the pair (50-dma < 200-dma) - the first since April last year, which should indicate short-term momentum in the pair is pointed lower. Notably, the AUD net short position continues to swell - putting AUD net positioning at a % of open interest at the largest short on CFTC records stretching back to the early 90s.
  • Focus for the session ahead rests on US new home sales data for February and the busier speaker slate. ECB's Holzmann is set to appear after last week's warning that markets should price in the risk of no rate cuts at all this year, while Fed's Bostic, Goolsbee and Cook also make appearances.
  • BoE's arch-hawk Mann speaks in Belfast, and markets will be on watch for any mention of her decision to switch from a vote to hike, to a vote to hold rates at last week's BoE rate decision.
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