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Currency Markets Adopt Modest Risk-Off Posture

EMERGING MARKETS
  • Flash PMI data from across the Eurozone and UK all painted a similar theme, with services proving resilient, but manufacturing lagging behind consensus. The data tilted most composite readings ahead of forecast, painting a slightly rosier economic picture ahead. Nonetheless, markets proved largely unreactive, as currency markets adopt a modest risk-off posture ahead of the final US session of the week.
  • The People’s Bank of China signaled it may start gradually scaling back some of the stimulus measures implemented during the pandemic as the economy begins recovering and credit demand picks up. Most of the structural tools — increasingly used by the central bank since 2020 to target specific areas of the economy — were “temporary,” Zou Lan, head of the monetary policy department, told reporters in Beijing on Thursday.
  • Underlying inflation in the euro area is proving to be very strong, according to European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos. “Core inflation remains very sticky,” Guindos said at an event in Madrid on Friday, adding that it may be more persistent than what markets had anticipated. The ECB is widely expected to increase its deposit rate at its next policy meeting on May 4, with the choice likely to be either a quarter- or half-point step.
  • Plans are in motion for President Joe Biden to formally announce his bid for a second term as soon as next week, with a campaign-style video set to be released to definitively answer the question of whether he will run again and igniting an aggressive fundraising effort to help Democrats hold the White House.
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