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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- Today’s Q1 current account data saw a much larger than expected deficit in Q1 at $237.6bn (cons $206.8bn) along with significant upward revisions including $221.8bn in Q4 (initial $194.8bn).
- Rather than what had appeared to be a steadily narrowing deficit to 2.8% GDP in 2H23 in the previous vintage, it now looks to have tentatively bottomed at 3.2% GDP in 2H23 before widening to 3.4% GDP again in Q1.
- The bulk of the revisions were driven by investment income, with both smaller receipts and larger payments. It has seen the investment income balance dwindle to a surplus of just 0.2% GDP in Q1 for its smallest since 2006/07, a trend likely stemming at least partly down to US equity outperformance.
- The current account deficit is still comfortably smaller than the peak post-pandemic imbalances which yielded a deficit of 4.7% GDP in early 2022, although it’s also significantly larger than the ~2% GDP averaged in the five years leading up to the pandemic.
- These relatively large current account deficits (by post-GFC standards) come at a time of persistently very large fiscal deficits, following the 6.5% GDP in 2023 and Bloomberg consensus currently forecasting deficits in excess of 5.5% GDP in each year through 2024-26.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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