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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
Here is how the updated Dot Plot entries compare to September's (with medians bolded).
- What stands out in the new distribution are the number of 2023 dots above 5% (17 of 19 participants see at least another 75bp of hikes in 2023). That's up from zero who saw above 5% as of September.
- No sell-side analysts saw as many as 7 dots above 5.1% (some saw as many as 4).
- The 2024 and 2025 dots see a much bigger dispersion, from 3.1% to 5.6% in 2024, and from 2.4% to 5.6% in 2025. It appears one participant expects to see rates raised another 125bp and held there through 2025.
- However the vast majority see cuts; definitely all but that one outlying hawk by 2024.
- Not depicted here: 2 of the 6 2.25% longer-run dots migrated higher. One of them probably moved to 2.375%, the other to 2.50%. The high is now 3.25% (probably migrated from 3% prior).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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