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Curve A Little Flatter In Run-Up To CPI

US TSYS

Treasuries are trading fairly flat Monday - within Friday's ranges for the most part, and on limited volumes. Attention is already on Tuesday's CPI release, with Monday's schedule looking very light.

  • Curve a little flatter, with 30s outperforming: 2-Yr yield is up 0.6bps at 0.2189%, 5-Yr is up 0.2bps at 0.8176%, 10-Yr is down 0.9bps at 1.3326%, and 30-Yr is down 1.4bps at 1.9194%.
  • Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) up 0.5/32 at 133-5.5 (L: 133-02.5 / H: 133-08)
  • The only data is the monthly budget statement at 1400ET, and there are no Fed speakers as we have entered the pre-FOMC blackout period.
  • In an interview published Sunday, Philly Fed's Harker said he saw tapering "sooner rather than later" but still saw a rate hike in late 2022/early 2023. No discernable market reaction, as Harker already seen leaning hawkish, and not a 2021-22 FOMC voter.
  • In the absence of obvious macro drivers, there could be some attention on Capitol Hill, with headlines over the weekend focused on Democratic tax hikes and intra-party disagreements over the size and scope of the $3.5T reconciliation package.
  • Supply is limited to bills: $93B combined of 13-/26-week bill sale at 1130ET.
  • NY Fed makes its last operational purchase purchase (22.5-30Y Tsys for approx $2.025B) until its next schedule is published Tuesday.
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