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Curve Bear Steepens On Thursday, NFP In View

US TSYS

TYU3 deals at 110-09+, +0-02, in line with late NY levels.

  • Cash tsys finished 1-11bps cheaper across the major benchmarks, the curve bear steepened.
  • Recent pressure on Tsys extended through yesterday's session, the latest ISM survey Services Index was a touch softer than expected however the Prices Paid component was at it's highest level in four months.
  • Flow-wise several curve steepeners also weighed on the belly and the long end of the curve. 2s10s printed its widest level since late May.
  • A ~2.6% rise in WTI as Saudi Arabia prolonged its unilateral production cut by another month and hinted that deeper reductions may be on the way also weighed at the margins.
  • FOMC dated OIS remain stable, a terminal rate of 5.40% is seen in November with ~60bps of cuts by June 2024.
  • There is a thin docket in Asia today. Further out we have the July NFP report which headlines Friday's session.
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