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Curve Consistently Steeper

US TSYS
Inside range for Tsys after the bell, curves steeper (2s10s +5.282 at -24.663) with bonds weaker but off early session lows (30YY currently 3.2584% vs. 3.2840% high / 3.1995% low).
  • Steeper curves the consistent theme on the day as futures see-sawed on the day, heavier volumes (TYU2>1.7M) more tied to Sep/Dec rolls rather than data that kicked things off.
  • Tsys extended highs overnight after soft European PMIs (France, Germany, EU in line or better than estimated but still sub-50, mixed UK w/ Mfg 46.0 vs. 51.0 est, Services 52.5 vs. 51.6 est) - only to extend session lows (no obvious headline driver) in the lead-up to US PMIs.
  • Tsys have rebounded back near overnight highs, yield curves bull steepening (2s10s +3.648 at -26.297) after US PMIs come out weaker than estimated, particularly Services (44.1 vs. 49.8 est). Further impetus from slump in New Home Sales for July: 511k vs. 575k est, and 590k prior.
  • Tsy futures pare gains yest again after $44B 2Y note auction (91282CFG1) tailed: 3.307% high yield vs. 3.290% WI; 2.49x bid-to-cover vs. 2.58x prior.
  • Focus remains on KC Fed's annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium: Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy, starts Friday w/ Chairman Powell speaking at 1000ET (0800 local), text is expected but no Q&A. Markets keen on pivot after cooling data or will the Fed maintain hawkish stance to squelch inflation.
  • Currently, The 2-Yr yield is down 1.2bps at 3.2975%, 5-Yr is up 1.8bps at 3.1753%, 10-Yr is up 3.2bps at 3.0461%, and 30-Yr is up 2.5bps at 3.2508%.
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