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Curve Retains Post-CPI Flattening Bias

US TSYS

The curve continued to flatten overnight Wednesday following the weaker-than-expected August CPI reading.

  • 5s30s at the lowest level since August 2020 (105.6bp), down ~4bp vs pre-CPI.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.2bps at 0.2091%, 5-Yr is down 0.3bps at 0.7822%, 10-Yr is down 1bps at 1.2735%, and 30-Yr is down 2.1bps at 1.8385%.
  • Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) are steady at at 133-19.5 and well within Tuesday's ranges (L: 133-15 / H: 133-20).
  • Not much reaction overnight to weaker-than-expected China economic data, nor higher-than-expected UK CPI.
  • Data today includes MBA mortgage apps (0700ET), Empire State Manufacturing (0830ET), Import Prices (also 0830ET), and industrial production (0915ET).
  • Industrial Production is the highlight of the schedule, but probably less attention on this than retail sales / jobless claims which come Thursday.
  • Supply consists of $30B 119-day bill auction at 1130ET. NY Fed buys ~$12.425B of 0-2.25Y Tsys.
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