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Curve Flattens On Tuesday

US TSYS

TYU3 deals at 112-23+, -0-00+, in line with late NY levels

  • Cash tsys finished 2bps cheaper to 3bps richer across the major benchmarks, the curve has twist flattened pivoting on 5s.
  • Tsys see-sawed in volatile trade after a mixed Retail Sales print, the headline print was weaker than expected however the May number was revised higher. A soft Industrial Production print saw tsys briefly firm however there was little follow through on the move higher.
  • Rate locks ahead of a brisk pace of corporate issuance weighed on tsys in the second half of the NY session.
  • FOMC dated OIS remain stable, a 25bp hike is priced in for next week's meeting with a terminal rate of 5.4% seen in November. There are ~70bps of cuts priced to June 2024.
  • CPI data from New Zealand, which crosses in ~45 minutes, is the highlight of today's Asian session. Further out we have June Housing Starts.
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