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Curve steepens following other core FI markets

GILTS
  • Gilts are generally taking their cue from Bunds this morning and catching up with UST moves from post-European close moves with 10-year yields around 0.5bp lower and 2-year gilt yields 3.5bp lower on the day (Schatz yields are down 2.4bp). 30-year gilt yields are 0.6bp higher on the day as the curve steepens.
  • Other than CBI industrial trends (at 11:00BST today) and BOE credit data tomorrow there is little on the domestic agenda for the remainder of the week.
  • However, there is an outside chance that we hear from Chancellor Reeves today (although next week is more likely). She is due to report to parliament by Tuesday on the state of the public finances, announce a Budget date (we see 30 October as the most likely date) and make an announcement on public sector pay (with the higher-than-budgeted for 5.5% increase recommended by the independent pay review likely to be expected - but question marks over where this funding will come from).
  • Markets already have one eye on next week's MPC meeting, too, with markets currently pricing around a 44% probability of a 25bp cut, with 101bp of cuts being priced by June 2024. We still see the decision as close to 50/50.
  • The German IFO and US GDP are the main external events that could impact UK markets today.
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