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Curve Steeper On Monday

US TSYS

TYU3 deals at 111-01, -0-03, in line with late NY levels.

  • Cash tsys finished flat to 7bps cheaper across the major benchmarks, the curve bear steepened.
  • In a data light session Tsys firmed off lows as risk sentiment improved in the NY session, the move came alongside a bid in US equities and marginal pressure on the USD.
  • Earlier in the session pressure after hawkish Fedpseak from Bowman over the weekend marginally extended in the European session.
  • NY Fed President Williams noted that he sees the need to keep policy restrictive for some time and that the peak rate is data dependent. He also noted that rate cuts may be warranted next year if inflation slows.
  • FOMC dated OIS remain stable, currently pricing a 5.40% terminal rate in November and ~90bps of cuts by July 2024.
  • There is a thin docket in Asia today, further out we have trade balance as well as wholesale inventories and trade. Fedspeak from Philadelphia Fed President Harker and Richmond Fed President Barkin is due. We also have the latest 3-Year Supply.
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