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Curves Broadly Steeper Ahead Friday's July NFP

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are drifting near session lows after the bell, generally quiet second half with participants near the sidelines ahead Friday's headline July employment data (+200k est vs. +209k prior).
  • First half trade was more lively as Treasury futures bounced briefly after the BOE hikes 25bp to 5.25% as expected (two voted for a 50bp hike, however). The MPC left guidance unchanged that it would tighten further in the face of more persistent inflation pressures, and warned that rates "will be sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term."
  • Fast two-way trade on decent volumes were reported after Factory Orders came out in line with est at 2.3% vs. 0.3% prior, Durable Goods Orders 4.6% vs. 4.7% est. As to ISMs, Services Index little softer than estimate: 52.7 vs. 53.1, while Prices Paid climbs to 56.8 vs. 54.1 prior, the highest in four months.
  • Several curves steepener Blocks (2Y/5Y, 5Y/10Y and 5Y/30Y Ultra) helped push curves to new multi-month highs: 3M10Y +12.886 at -123.759 -- breaching early July highs, the spread is back to early April levels; 2Y10Y +9.953 at -70.594, back to late May levels. Both spreads are still well off Q1 highs: 3M10Y -77.419 on March 2; 2Y1Y -26.706 on March 24.
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