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Curves flattening ahead of US CPI and FOMC Minutes

BONDS
  • Curves have been flattening this morning, with the biggest moves seen at the short-end while 10-year yields have remained more steady in comparison. Schatz yields are now at their highest since 3 April.
  • The main focus for markets today will be the release of US CPI at 13:30BST / 8:30ET (see our preview here). We suspect any continued stickiness in non-housing core services will dictate the market reaction ahead of the May FOMC, with an 18bp hike currently priced. while the FOMC Minutes will also be watched closely (see our preview here).
  • The Bank of Canada will announce its latest policy decision with rates expected to remain on hold at 4.50% (see our preview here).
  • In addition we will also have a number of speeches scheduled: BOE's Bailey, ECB's de Cos and Villeroy, Fed's Barkin and Daly.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-1 today at 115-11 with 10y UST yields up 1.0bp at 3.438% and 2y yields up 2.4bp at 4.049%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.24 today at 135.63 with 10y Bund yields up 1.1bp at 2.318% and Schatz yields up 5.1bp at 2.746%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.02 today at 103.24 with 10y yields down -0.6bp at 3.533% and 2y yields up 0.4bp at 3.477%.
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