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Curves Flatter With Bonds Gaining On Narrow Range

US TSYS
  • Treasuries continue to hold to a narrow overall range after the bell, curves mildly flatter with the short end underperforming a gradual rise in Bonds during the second half.
  • Generally quiet start to the first day of summer trade, data limited to in-line Dallas Fed manufacturing index: as expected in June, rising to -15.1 (cons -15.0) from -19.4 in May. The production index suggested activity was essentially flat as it only ticked up from -2.8 to +0.7.
  • Fed speak remains cautious: SF Fed Pres Daly notes that "the bumpiness of inflation data so far this year has not inspired confidence", and while "recent readings are more encouraging...it is hard to know if we are truly on track to sustainable price stability."
  • Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said monetary policy is "quite restrictive" while he remains "hopeful that we'll get more inflation confidence".
  • Treasury futures off early lows by the bell, projected rate cut pricing are steady to mildly higher vs. early Monday levels (*): July'24 at -10% w/ cumulative at -2.5bp at 5.302%, Sep'24 cumulative -18.6bp (-18.4bp), Nov'24 cumulative -28.0bp (-27.1bp), Dec'24 -47.9bp (-46.8bp).
  • Tuesday Data Calendar: Fed Speak, Home Prices, Regional Fed Data.

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