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Curves Flatter With Futures Touching Recent Lows

BONDS

Global core FI is trading mixed to open the week, with EGB futures slightly higher while Gilts and Treasuries are trading a little softer.

  • Cash curves are modestly flatter with the short end underperforming amid solidifying 2023 central bank rate hike expectations: basically, a continuation of the price action seen in the middle of last week.
  • Bund/Gilt/Tsy front futures briefly ticked down to the lowest levels since early/mid Jan in early European trade, but have edged up slightly since then.
  • A fairly quiet schedule ahead today, but becomes increasingly busy the rest of the week including Tuesday's highly-anticipated US CPI release (our preview will be out later today)
  • The speaker highlight is Fed Gov Bowman (0800ET) discussing banking supervision; we also get comments from ECB's Knot and Centeno.

Latest levels:

  • Mar 10-Yr US Tsy futures (TY) down 0.5/32 at 112-21.5 (L: 112-18.5 / H: 112-24)
  • Mar Bund futures (RX) up 21 ticks at 136.12 (L: 135.59 / H: 136.2)
  • Mar Gilt futures (G) down 6 ticks at 103.9 (L: 103.52 / H: 103.93)
  • Italy / German 10-Yr spread 0.4bps tighter at 184.1bps
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