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Curves Twist Flatter, Rate Cuts Cool As Recession Concerns Ease

US TSYS
  • Treasuries are mostly firmer after the bell, curves flatter (2s10s -5.920 at -11.155) with the short end underperforming on a relatively quiet end to a hectic week with no scheduled data, Fed speak or Tsy supply Friday.
  • Treasury futures spiked higher early in the week as recession concerns climbed following last Friday's employment data, 10Y futures surge to 115-03.5 high Monday, 10Y yield fall to 3.6653% low.
  • Markets spent the rest of the week scaling back support as recession cares cooled.
  • Tsy Sep'24 10Y futures currently trade +8 at 112-29, vs. 112-21, well below technical resistance at 114-03/115-03+ (High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger).
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end were well off Monday's highs (*): Sep'24 cumulative -39.4bp (-54.3bp), Nov'24 cumulative -70.5bp (-95.9bp), Dec'24 -102.2bp (-128.1bp).
  • Focus on next week's PPI, CPI, Retail Sales, Home sales data and UofM inflation expectations.
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