CWE Peak-Load Prices Rise on Lower Renewable Forecast

French and Germany day-ahead peak-load prices increased on the day amid low renewable forecasts tomorrow and firm power demand. Wind in Germany and France is expected to fall further on Friday – which could support both base-load and peak-load power prices over the period.

• The German peak day ahead closed at €82.24/MWh, up from €81.58/MWh in the previous day.
  
• The French peak day ahead also closed higher at €45.73/MWh sharply up from €21.05/MWh.
• This narrowed the German-French peak-load premium to €36.51/MWh from €60.53/MWh in the previous session.
• This upward trend of peak-load prices was also present in other European power markets: Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, Poland and Belgium.
• German wind output is expected at only an 11% load factor, or 6.82GW on Thursday, before declining to just a 6% load factor, or 3.79GW on Friday.
• Solar is forecast at 23% load factor, or about 12.77GW, on Thursday. The forecast on Friday has been revised down by about 214MW on the day to 8.89GW – a 16% load factor, according to spot renewables.
• German power demand is forecast to average between 41.62-64.58GW tomorrow, up from 39.94-63.9GW today, data from Entso-E show. Demand is expected to remain within this range on Friday.
• Germany’s 1.05GW Neurath lignite power plant will be disconnected on Friday (24 May) at 10:15 CET, with the unit back online at 13:45 CET due to planned maintenance.
• French nuclear availability capacity was at 43.64GW as of Wednesday morning, equal to around 71% of capacity, slightly down on the day, according to Reuters.
• And 905MW Chinon 1 nuclear reactor will return to full capacity on 24 May at 04:00 CET – increasing base-load power generation by about 350MW and potentially weighing on power prices in France.
• Temperatures across northwest Europe are expected to remain above the 30-year norm of ~15C for the majority of the two-week forecast – only dipping below on 28 May – which may increase demand in the power region.