CWE Power – German September Tracks Gas, Cooler Temperatures

The German September power base-load contract is edging lower today as TTF prices have declined, with a slight fall in EU ETS prices also weighing and temperature forecasts pointing to cooler weather in September from August.

• Germany Base Power SEP 24 down 2% at 76.00 EUR/MWh
  
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 down 1% at 69.53 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 0.7% at 65.98 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 1.1% at 32.3 EUR/MWh
• TTF front month is slightly down on the day but set for a small net gain on the week with stable fundamentals and the gradual restocking of gas stores set against LNG supply and weather risks.
• ETS Dec 24 is trading red from yesterday to track declining EU gas, with falling costs in the most recent EU ETS and Polish CAP 3 auctions this week adding additional weight.
• Average temperatures in Berlin over September are forecasts at around 15.4C – unchanged from previous forecasts – but down compared to 18.6C anticipated over August this year.
• In Germany, wind output is forecast at 2.84GW-11.53GW during base load on 12-28 July. Solar PV output is forecast at 16.02GW-27.58GW during peak load over the same period, according to SpotRenewables.
• Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise from typically lower weekend demand early next week, reaching as high as 53.3GW on 24 July compared to between 41.4-44.03GW over the weekend, ECMWF show.
• In France nuclear availability is unchanged on the day at 71% of capacity as of Friday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg
• EdF is still anticipated to end its curtailment at its 915MW Tricastin 4 nuclear reactor, with the unit fully online on 21 July.
• French power demand is also forecast to reach a five-day high on 24 July at 45.03GW, with demand generally moving upward from the weekend – likely supporting power prices.
• The latest 6–10-day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures were revised up again from the previous day at between 1.3-1.5C over 19-21 July, with temperatures forecast to reach as high as 26C on 19 July. Max temperatures are anticipated between 24.4-31.6 over 20-28 July – with the hottest temperatures recorded on 20 July and 26-28 July – which could spur heating demand.