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CNB
The Czech National Bank has published its latest set of economic forecasts as a press conference with Governor Ales Michl got underway.
- The widely expected 5-2 vote split has been confirmed, with two hawkish dissenters (most likely Holub & Mora) seeking a 50bp rate rise.
- The Bank Board discussed a scenario where by interest rates would remain higher for longer and will decide between hold/hike at the next meeting.
- The central bank reaffirmed its commitment to bringing inflation fully under control, i.e. anchored near the +2% Y/Y target.
- Headline inflation is seen at +10.8% Y/Y in 2023 (prev. +9.1%) and +2.1% Y/Y in 2024 (prev. +2.4%).
- During his press conference, Governor Michl noted that he sees a higher rate path than priced by the money market as the CNB seeks to get on top of inflation.
- The official added that a strong CZK is helping tighten monetary conditions and argued that inflation is a bigger problem than exports.
- The full statement from the CNB is available here.
- The slides from Governor Michl's presser can be found here.
Fig. 1: Comparison of CNB's Forecasts - Autumn 2022 versus Winter 2023
Source: CNB
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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