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CZECHIA: Consensus Sees Inflation Accelerating In September

CZECHIA
EM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsCentral and Eastern EuropeRegionCzechia

Czechia's inflation may have accelerated in September, according to the consensus of 24 analysts polled by Bloomberg. All of them believe that inflation quickened, while the median estimate is +2.4% Y/Y versus +2.2% recorded in August. The CNB's (now slightly outdated) forecast shows headline CPI at +2.3% Y/Y. The CZSO will release the data at 08:00BST/09:00CEST, with the CNB set to provide its comments and a breakdown of the data at 12:00BST/13:00CEST.

  • CSOB write that inflation probably ticked higher to +2.3% Y/Y from +2.2%. They think there is little scope for a surprise here, hence the release should not have a significant impact on the koruna or CNB easing bets.
  • Goldman Sachs forecast inflation to increase to +2.3% Y/Y, driven by strong base effects offsetting the decline in sequential price pressures. They think the risks in both directions are relatively high. The PRE (major energy supplier for Prague) cut electricity prices by 16% for customers without a fixed price plan and natural gas prices by 20% but the impact of this is unclear. Meanwhile, the recent floods present the risk of higher prices. They believe that inflation will re-align with the CNB's projections in September, which would be a dovish development, following hawkish surprises in July and August CPI prints.
  • Komercni banka wrote that inflation may tick higher to +2.3% Y/Y, despite continued decline in fuel prices. Base effects in administered energy prices and food prices may boost the overall outturn. They note that the food component is notoriously volatile and hence comes with greatest uncertainty. They expect core inflation to have slowed to +2.3% Y/Y from +2.4% prior. In their view, headline and core inflation will remain in the +2.0%-2.5% Y/Y range through the rest of this year and average at +1.7% Y/Y in 2025.
  • UniCredit see September inflation at +2.4% Y/Y, with the acceleration driven by base effects in food an housing and slightly moderated by a decline in fuel prices. Cheaper fuel and a seasonal drop in holiday package prices should drive a 0.5% M/M decline in CPI. They see inflation remaining near the upper bound of the CNB's 1pp tolerance band around the +2% Y/Y target for the rest of this year and in 2025.
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Czechia's inflation may have accelerated in September, according to the consensus of 24 analysts polled by Bloomberg. All of them believe that inflation quickened, while the median estimate is +2.4% Y/Y versus +2.2% recorded in August. The CNB's (now slightly outdated) forecast shows headline CPI at +2.3% Y/Y. The CZSO will release the data at 08:00BST/09:00CEST, with the CNB set to provide its comments and a breakdown of the data at 12:00BST/13:00CEST.

  • CSOB write that inflation probably ticked higher to +2.3% Y/Y from +2.2%. They think there is little scope for a surprise here, hence the release should not have a significant impact on the koruna or CNB easing bets.
  • Goldman Sachs forecast inflation to increase to +2.3% Y/Y, driven by strong base effects offsetting the decline in sequential price pressures. They think the risks in both directions are relatively high. The PRE (major energy supplier for Prague) cut electricity prices by 16% for customers without a fixed price plan and natural gas prices by 20% but the impact of this is unclear. Meanwhile, the recent floods present the risk of higher prices. They believe that inflation will re-align with the CNB's projections in September, which would be a dovish development, following hawkish surprises in July and August CPI prints.
  • Komercni banka wrote that inflation may tick higher to +2.3% Y/Y, despite continued decline in fuel prices. Base effects in administered energy prices and food prices may boost the overall outturn. They note that the food component is notoriously volatile and hence comes with greatest uncertainty. They expect core inflation to have slowed to +2.3% Y/Y from +2.4% prior. In their view, headline and core inflation will remain in the +2.0%-2.5% Y/Y range through the rest of this year and average at +1.7% Y/Y in 2025.
  • UniCredit see September inflation at +2.4% Y/Y, with the acceleration driven by base effects in food an housing and slightly moderated by a decline in fuel prices. Cheaper fuel and a seasonal drop in holiday package prices should drive a 0.5% M/M decline in CPI. They see inflation remaining near the upper bound of the CNB's 1pp tolerance band around the +2% Y/Y target for the rest of this year and in 2025.