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CZECHIA: Minutes Show Zamrazilova, Kubelkova Dissented In Recent Vote On Rates

CZECHIA
  • The minutes of the CNB's latest monetary policy meeting revealed that the two hawkish dissenters voting in favour of a 25bp rate cut were Eva Zamrazilova and Karina Kubelkova, while the other five members voted for a 50bp cut. Still, Governor Ales Michl said that "at the coming meetings, the Board should discuss the option of slowing the decline in rates or stabilising rates for some time." Other policymakers agreed in principle, albeit Kubelkova and Kubicek expressed their view that the policy neutral rate might now be higher than before. The two Deputy Governors expressed concern about koruna exchange rate, with Jan Frait calling it undervalued and Eva Zamrazilova flagging the risk of further depreciation and volatility associated with the potential excessive monetary easing. The central bank also published the assessment of risks to the inflation forecast, which noted that "the update of the spring forecast leads to slightly slower inflation from mid-2024 onwards amid a somewhat higher interest rate path," reflecting "a higher path of foreign rates, which will outweigh the anti-inflationary effect of a stronger koruna."
  • The CZSO released a slew of local economic data for the month of May this morning:
    • trade balance +CZK13.6bn (BBG est. +CZK28.4bn)
    • industrial output -3.2% Y/Y (BBG est. -1.2%)
    • construction output -6.8% Y/Y
  • Analysts polled by CTK believe that headline inflation for June will print at +2.6% Y/Y, with forecasts falling between +2.5% and +2.7%. This contrasts with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey and the CNB's forecast coinciding at +2.4%. The data will be released on Wednesday and followed by the publication of the CNB's comments on inflation developments.
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegionCzechia

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