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CZECHIA: Trade Surplus Widens, Industrial Output Shrinks More Than Forecast

CZECHIA
  • The CNB provided some more details on the adjustments of the assumed equilibria in the Czech economy after flagging at last week's meeting with analysts that parameters such as potential growth and the equilibrium pace of currency appreciation are now slower than before. Central bank analysts warned that "if the reduction in productivity growth were to continue at a similar pace, potential growth would further slow down to +2% in the future [from the revised +2.5% and compared with the +3% assumed earlier], despite possible temporary favourable demographic influences."
  • Czechia's trade surplus widened to CZK29.3bn in June from CZK13.6bn prior, exceeding the consensus forecast of +CZK15.8bn. The CZSO said that "there was a year-on-year decline in most commodity groups, both on the export and import side. Only imports of refined petroleum products or exports of chemicals and chemical products and other transport equipment recorded year-on-year growth of more than CZK1bn."
  • The contraction in industrial output was 9.1% Y/Y in June, which was a deeper slump than the expected 6.0%. The CZSO pointed to the unfavourable base effect in the manufacturing of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers and in the manufacturing of other transport equipment.
  • Construction output fell 10.2% Y/Y in June, with declines registered across both building construction and civil engineering construction.
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