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CZK Steady and 10Y Yield Flat Ahead of CPI Data on June 10

CZECHIA
  • This week, the Czech government approved an outline of the main parameters of the 2022 budget draft, expecting the deficit to narrow to 390 billion koruna from a record 500 billion koruna planned for this year, the Finance Ministry says in a statemen (BBG).
  • Yesterday, economic data showed April retail sales rose by 21% (less than the 25.2% ex.), up from a revised 15.6% the previous month.
  • USDCZK: implied vol on the pair has been easing in the past few weeks with USDCZK trading within a tight range between 20.72 and 21; next resistance to watch on the topside stands at 21.22, followed by 21.29 (50D SMA). On the downside, first support to watch below 20.72 stands at 20.35.
  • Czech 10Y yield ticks lower by 1bps to 1.67% and is currently trading below its 100D SMA (1.70%), next support to watch on the downside stands at 1.60%. On the topside, first resistance stands at 1.80% (50D SMA).
  • Czech currently offers one of the lowest 10Y real yields among the EM world at -1.43%.
  • Next CPI print (for May) is coming out on June 10.
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