June 27, 2022 12:21 GMT
- CZKPLN ticks higher on Monday, currently trading slightly above the 0.19 level; ST resistance to watch on the topside stands at 0.1917.
- We previously mentioned that the risk-reward on the CZKPLN is skewed to the downside in the medium term amid slowly growing MP divergence between CNB and NBP .
- Even though momentum on the pair continues to look bullish (MT chart), investors will carefully watch the 0.1850 – 0.1855 support zone; a break below that level would indicate the start of a 'bearish' retracement and would open the door for a move down to 0.1827 (38.2% Fibo of the 0.1634 – 0.1947 range).
- Geopolitical uncertainty remains the major risk of PLN though; the recent Russian ‘default’ adds more risk for the zloty in the near term.