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CZKRUB Testing Its 100D SMA Support At 3.46

CZECHIA
  • CZKRUB has been retracing lower in recent days, breaking below its 3.48 support line, which represents the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the 3.30-3.59 range (2021 low/high range).
  • The pair is currently testing its 100D SMA at 3.46; next key support to watch on the downside stands at 3.42 (61.8% Fibo and 200D SMA).
  • On the topside, key resistance remains at 3.60, which represents the pair's all time high.
  • CNB is expected to keep its benchmark rate steady at 0.25% on May 6 and start a tightening cycle in H2 2021. Sell-side analysts forecast 1 to 2 hikes in the second half of this year, implying that the CNB will be the first central bank to hike interest rates in Western/Central/Eastern Europe (excl. Russia/Turkey).
  • On the other side, CBR has already started a tightening cycle this year amid growing concerns over rising inflationary pressures; the central bank raised its benchmark rate by 75bps in 2021 to 5%.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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