Dallas Pres Kaplan's 2022 Hike Expectation Data-Dependent, Not Dogmatic

Dallas Fed Pres Kaplan said Tues in a CNBC interview that he was one of the 4 FOMC members who projected a rate hike in 2022 in the March update of the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections 'dot plot'. The FOMC median of course sees no hikes through 2023.

• No word though on whether Kaplan was the member who saw two 25bps hikes in 2022. He's also not keen on the Fed beefing up forward guidance at or adjusting asset purchases to bring down long-end yields, with a further rise in 10-Yr yields "a healthy signal".
• While Kaplan's clearly among the more hawkish members of the FOMC, notably dissenting to the Sept 2020 FOMC statement that reflected the avg inflation targeting framework, it's worth pointing out that he is not a voter until 2023.
• It's probably also worth noting that Kaplan's approach is still very much data dependent rather than dogmatically hawkish. While he sees for example 6.5% GDP growth in 2021 and 4% unemployment at year-end - both forecasts above the FOMC median - he said he needed to see "actual evidence...outcomes, not just strong forecasts" before tightening policy. That has been the prevailing sentiment across the FOMC.
• At a guess, based on public comments and previous voting records, the three non-Kaplan 2022 dots may have been Bostic, Barkin, and George.

Mar 2021 Dot PlotFederal Reserve