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SFRH3 Lifted

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Daly and Arguably Bullard Add To Stepdown Talk

FED
  • First put forward by WSJ’s Timiraos today with a piece outlining the potential for slowing to a 50bp clip in December, SF Fed's Daly (’24 voter) has amplified market expectations of a slowing in the pace of rate hikes beyond the upcoming Nov 1-2 meeting. The market had previously got close to pricing an additional 75bp hike in Dec before a terminal above 5% in May.
  • Daly headlines from Reuters:
    • WE DON'T WANT TO BE TOO REACTIVE, CAN EASILY FIND YOURSELF OVERTIGHTENING, WANT TO AVOID AN 'UNFORCED DOWNTURN' BY OVERTIGHTENING
    • RENTAL PRICE INFLATION IS STARTING TO SLOW
    • FED'S SEPTEMBER SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS IS A GOOD INDICATION OF WHERE THINGS ARE LOOKING
  • She was then followed by an unscheduled appearance from Bullard ('22). Bloomberg headlines)
    • HOPING TO GET THE DISINFLATIONARY PROCESS GOING IN '23 (albeit similar to two days ago)
    • WANT RATES THAT PUT MEANINGFUL PRESSURE ON INFLATION
    • WHAT THAT LEVEL IS A KEY DEBATE FOR NOV, DEC, MEETINGS
    • AT THAT POINT CAN MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS GOING FORWARD

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