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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
- Daly (2024 voter) follows from weekend comments that the case for a 50bp hike has grown by adding that she doesn’t see supply-chain issues ending until Covid improves and the labour market extremely tight, but with the main addition is that the Fed could start balance sheet reduction as early as May.
- This mirrors upcoming VC Brainard’s earlier comments on potentially starting QT in May, who added that she expects the “balance sheet to shrink considerably more rapidly than in the previous recovery, with significantly larger caps and a much shorter period to phase in the maximum caps”.
- With the move coming after Brainard, FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures sit just shy of the new high of 220bps of hikes over the remaining six meetings this year.
- This begins with 46bps priced for May and a cumulative 90bps for June, the latter implying a greater chance of 125bps than 75bps come June (21% vs 16%) with 63% chance of 100bps.
FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures cumulative hikesSource: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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