Free Trial

Danske Bank Expect Significant Market Impact if Opposition Win Elections

TURKEY
  • Danske Bank remain sceptical that this is the final countdown for Erdoğan, as the most recent polls have come in his favour. But if it is, market impacts will be significant, they say.
  • The new government would most likely move to restore central bank’s independence, implying a convergence in the policy rate above 30%. This would likely bring extreme volatility in TRY short term, but in the medium term, TRY could appreciate substantially as flows reverse.
  • But while opposition win would mark a U-turn for economic policy for sure, in many ways, their ability to rule could be curtailed by AKP’s broad presence in public offices.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.