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Danske looks for 75bp next week

ECB
  • "We now expect ECB to hike 75bp next week, which will be followed by 50bp in October and 25bp in December, but acknowledge the increased uncertainty on the two latter hike size expectations. This is +25bp for our previous rate hike expectations at both the September and the October meetings, respectively, and we now see the end-point of the ECB deposit rate at 1.5%."
  • "We believe the euro area will face a recession and ECB will hike into that."
  • "We have seen a significant intensification of the near-term inflation pressure, with the inflation peak now projected by markets above 10% in December... This has lead the particularly hawkish members of the ECB's Governing Council to be very aggressive and argue for a sharp tightening need in the past couple of days. They also point to increased risks of inflation expectations becoming de-anchored or a wage/inflation spiral kicking in."
  • "During the Jackson Hole conference this weekend, the influential ECB member Schnabel outlined a very hawkish presentation... she argues that in certain circumstances stabilising inflation is no longer equivalent to stabilising output during shocks and therefore implies a trade-off for monetary policy, between inflation and output

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