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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CHINA DATA
China's activity data calendar swings back into gear tomorrow, with the Caixin services PMI out. The market expects a 54.4 print from 55.0. Recall the official services PMI surprised on the downside at the end of September (50.6 against 52.4 expected).
- From Sunday onwards until the end of next week, September aggregate financing figures are due. The market expects a slight uptick in both aggregate finance (CNY2700bn versus CNY2432.2bn previously), and new loans (CNY1800bn against CNY1254.2bn last month).
- Such outcomes would do little to change the moderate picture in terms credit expansion. The chart below plots the rolling 6 and 12 month sums for aggregate finance (with the dots assuming the consensus forecast for September is realized).
- Bloomberg stated the 1yr MLF decision could come in the second half of next week, although there is a risk it slips to the start of the following week. In any event the market expects no change in the 1yr rate at 2.7%.
- Finally, next Friday delivers September CPI (2.8% f/c versus 2.5% in August) and PPI prints (1.1% f/c from 2.3% previously). Trade is also out, export growth is expected to slow further (4.0% f/c from 7.1%), but the trade surplus is forecast to remain very elevated ($80.75bn).
Fig 1: China Aggregate Finance Trends
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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