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Data Bar To Ending Hikes In Sept Is Surmountable (1/2)

FED

Chair Powell will likely be questioned at the July press conference as to what the FOMC is looking for in order to end the hiking cycle (more from our meeting preview here).

  • Powell will likely emphasize the fact that there is plenty of data to digest before the next meeting on Sep 20th, including 2 more CPI reports (Aug 10, Sep 13) and nonfarm payrolls (Aug 4, Sep 1).
  • There's also 1 further CPI (Oct 12) and payrolls (Oct 6) between then and the Nov 1 decision.
  • Gov Waller – who has become one of the clearest communicators on the Committee in terms of his own reaction function – said this month after the June inflation report that if the Jul and Aug reports show similar rates of core CPI (0.16% M/M; PCE implied 0.2% TBA Jul 28th) then it could “suggest maybe stopping”.
  • That’s a fairly high hurdle to surmount, but certainly not implausible, and most analysts who expect July’s hike to be the last also envisage further moderate prints for Jul and Aug.
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