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Data Could Print Over The Weekend, July Monthly Data Out On Monday

CHINA DATA

A reminder that the China data calendar could be in focus over the next few days. We are still waiting on aggregate finance/new loan figures from July. The market is expecting a decent step down in the pace of both figures. This data can come out anytime between now and Monday.

  • The Bloomberg calendar also states the 1yr MLF rate and lending facility could also print between tomorrow and next Tuesday. The market expects an unchanged MLF rate at 2.85%, while the consensus is for 400bn yuan rolled over. Most uncertainty rests on the roll over amount, given the domestic system is flush with liquidity at the moment.
  • Then on Monday we get the monthly data dump for July. IP, retail sales, fixed asset investment (FAI), property investment and the jobless rate.
  • All will be in focus given on-going domestic Covid headwinds- the market expects IP growth of 4.4% YoY, versus 3.9% previously. Retail sales are expected to recovery further to 4.9% from 3.1% in June. FAI is expected to be firmer at +6.3% (from 6.1%) but property a laggard (-5.6% forecast, versus -5.4% in June). The jobless rate is forecast to be unchanged at 5.5%.
  • The detail in FAI is also likely to be in focus on how much infrastructure is rebounding against a continued drag from the property sector. Headlines have also filtered across the wires in recent weeks around the tough jobs market at the moment.
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