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Day ahead

GILTS
  • The key event of the day for the gilt market was the inflation data which was out at 7:00BST.
  • CPI came in 0.2ppt below consensus expectations while RPI was 0.2ppt above consensus.
  • There was little reaction in the pound when the data was released while short sterling Reds/Greens/Blues have moved around 1.0-1.5 ticks higher on the back of the data.
  • A downside surprise will do little to change medium-term views here as July data was always expected to see a pullback and CPI is still expected to pick up substantially and peak later this year.
  • The next big domestic event will be the release of retail sales and public finance data on Friday, with external factors likely to be the bigger driver in the interim.
  • Gilt futures have opened a little higher than yesterday's close on the day with cash yields a little lower (but the curve relatively stable).
  • Gilt futures are up 0.10 today at 129.96 with 10y yields down -0.8bp at 0.553% and 2y yields down -0.9bp at 0.135%.
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